Photo Credit: Soccer.com
Tomorrow both the United States and Germany will play their third and final game in the group stages, and it is set to be one of the biggest group stage matches in the 2014 World Cup.
As it stands now, Germany is topping Group G with a win and a draw giving four points and a +4 goal differential. The US is in second place with a win and a draw giving them four points as well, but with only a +1 goal differential. Followed by Ghana then Portugal both with a draw and a loss giving them both only one point, with -1 and -4 goal differentials respectively.
After their draw against Portugal on Sunday, the chances for the United States actually increased from 65 percent to 76 percent. Going into tomorrow’s game the only surefire ways for the US to clinch their advancement into the next round is to gain a win or a draw against the Germans. If they fail to do either one and lose to Germany, then it will come down to the outcome of the Portugal vs Ghana game, which kicks off simultaneously.
Saying the United States needs only a win or a draw to advance is a lot easier said than done. According to ESPN’s Soccer Power Index, Germany is the third best team playing in this year’s World Cup which gives us only a 14 percent chance of a win and a 22 percent chance of a draw. However, there are a few other ways for the US to advance through to the elimination round.
If the US loses to Germany tomorrow but Ghana and Portugal tie, the US would still advance. Next, depending on the goal amounts of each game, if the US loses to Germany they could still advance because the US edges out both Ghana and Portugal on goal differentials. If that is still not enough there are many other levels of tie-breakers FIFA has put in place for tight groups like this.
To give an example, if the US loses to Germany 1-0 and Ghana beats Portugal 1-0 both would now have an even goal differential. They also both would have had four goals scored and allowed, making it come down to head-to-head results, giving the US an edge because of beating them in their first World Cup match.
While we can all compile pages of statistics for tomorrow’s game, once the whistle blows, nothing else matters but the passion and athletic ability of both teams. And even though no one can guarantee any results for the matches, it can be guaranteed that all of the US will have their eyes glued the 11 American players who will be taking the field in hopes of continuing their quest to bring a World Cup title to America for the very first time.
